Week 8 college football best bets, odds, picks: Which teams are mispriced in the market? Corbie Craig October 17, 2025 at 2:59 AM 0 By Week 8, the college football board starts to shift.
- - Week 8 college football best bets, odds, picks: Which teams are mispriced in the market?
Corbie Craig October 17, 2025 at 2:59 AM
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By Week 8, the college football board starts to shift. Teams are worn down, travel becomes a factor, and the betting market tends to swing too far in one direction after a wild Saturday or two. This is the stretch where overreactions get priced in and teams receive bias based on box score outcomes and not deeper metrics.
This week's slate isn't about one must-watch matchup — it's more of a buffet of mispriced lines and totals that haven't fully adjusted to where these teams really are. Let's dig into the numbers and find where the market's gone too far.
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UNLV at Boise State (-12.5, 63.5)
UNLV's undefeated start under Dan Mullen has been one of the season's better stories — the Rebels are 6-0 for the first time since 1974. But this has been a soft landing spot early, with defensive doormats like Sam Houston (131st in defensive points per play) and Air Force (136th) padding the offensive stats.
The issue is tempo. UNLV ranks outside the top 100 in pace but sits 11th nationally in points per game — an efficiency profile that's bound to come back to earth. Boise State isn't the blue-blood monster of years past, but its 102nd ranking in raw points per play is misleading. Adjusted EPA tells a different story, with the Broncos sitting 54th defensively despite facing a tough schedule.
Expect Boise to control tempo and limit possessions in a game that plays much slower than oddsmakers are projecting.
The bet: Under 63.5 (-110)
Hawaii at Colorado State (-2.5, 53.5)
After back-to-back offensive outbursts, including a 500-yard, 44-point showing last week, Hawaii overs look tempting — but it's a trap. Those performances came against bottom-tier defenses, and under the hood, Hawaii's 119th-ranked offense in EPA paints a much different picture.
Both teams play fast — top 40 in seconds per play — yet the total sits below the national average (54.5), signaling potential inefficiency. Hawaii's inflated third-down success rate (top 20 nationally) is a key red flag, as that's unlikely to hold up against altitude and a disciplined Colorado State defense that thrives on ugly games.
Expect regression and stalled drives to define this matchup.
The bet: Under 53.5 (-110)
Texas Tech (-7.5, 52) at Arizona State
This line has flipped dramatically from the preseason, when we bet Texas Tech as a +4 underdog in this matchup. The Red Raiders' NIL-fueled roster upgrades have paid off, but the market's reaction has gone too far — especially with Arizona State finally returning starting QB Sam Leavitt.
Leavitt, who missed time due to injury, practiced fully this week and was reportedly available against Utah but held out due to field conditions. His return changes the complexion of Arizona State's offense, which looked lifeless with Jeff Sims under center.
I bet the over at 49 early in the week — and while that number's gone, there's still value at 52 because of Leavitt's return and both defenses ranking outside the top 70 in success rate. For those holding a preseason Arizona State ticket, this is also a good spot to hedge.
The bet: Arizona State +7.5 (preseason hedge)The bet: Over 52
By mid-October, the betting market has fully absorbed public narratives — and that's exactly when sharp bettors look to pivot. This week's board isn't about picking sides in marquee matchups; it's about identifying where perception has overtaken performance.
Boise State's defense is better than the public thinks, Hawaii's offense isn't as dangerous as the scoreboard suggests, and Arizona State is healthier than the line implies. In a week built on overreactions, the best value lies in patience — and in betting against the noise.
Source: "AOL Sports"
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