Will 'Future Melissa' Ruin The First Potential Shutout Of Caribbean Named Storms In 28 Years? Rob Shackelford October 18, 2025 at 12:15 AM 0 Above are the tracks for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season so far.
- - Will 'Future Melissa' Ruin The First Potential Shutout Of Caribbean Named Storms In 28 Years?
Rob Shackelford October 18, 2025 at 12:15 AM
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Above are the tracks for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season so far. Notice anything unusual about this map?
I can think of a few, the main one being the strongest hurricanes (fortunately) steering away from the mainland United States.
But another thing about this map intrigued me: the Caribbean Sea. There has not been a single named storm in the Caribbean so far.
So, how unusual is this? It's pretty rare, actually.
To see the last time there wasn't a single named storm in the Caribbean Sea, you have to go all the way back to 1997.
The Caribbean has been relatively protected by dry air and wind shear this season, which has inhibited development in the region.
(MORE: Tropical Deja Vu)
But that could change in the coming weeks.
Could 'Future Melissa' Ruin This Stat?
A tropical wave moving across the Atlantic Basin is heading toward the Caribbean, where it could potentially become the 13th named storm of the season, Melissa.
However, wind shear and pockets of dry air are in the path between this wave and the Caribbean, so there is no certainty of Melissa being named. Read more about the forecast here.
Forecast wind shear in the path of this area of interest
But should the disturbance move through the unfavorable conditions and actually make it into the Caribbean, the sea surface temperatures are primed for storm development.
So, should the conditions line up perfectly, we could see Melissa in the Caribbean, making the potential Caribbean shutout no longer.
(MORE: NHC Watching For Development In Caribbean: Could This Become 'Melissa'?)
Tropical Storms In The Caribbean
Now I have to get into the weeds a little bit here because there is a technicality that needs to be clarified.
There have been a few years since 1997 when tropical storms moved into the Caribbean but left before reaching hurricane strength.
A few notable years are listed below:
In 2023, Tropical Storm Bret tracked into the Caribbean. That same year, both Idalia and Franklin existed as tropical storms in the Caribbean before moving out of the Caribbean Sea and eventually strengthening into hurricanes.
In 2019, Dorian also moved through the Caribbean as a tropical storm before eventually strengthening to a hurricane.
The key here is that the last time we had neither a tropical storm nor a hurricane in the Caribbean was 1997.
Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master's degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.
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