'Imelda' Forecast To Stall Near Southeast US Coast Next Week; Hurricane Humberto Could Become Rare Category 5 Jonathan Erdman, Jennifer Gray, Rob Shackelford, Sara Tonks and Jonathan Belles September 27, 2025 at 5:45 AM 97 Tropical storm warnings are in effect in the Bahamas and South Carolina's Gov...
- - 'Imelda' Forecast To Stall Near Southeast US Coast Next Week; Hurricane Humberto Could Become Rare Category 5
Jonathan Erdman, Jennifer Gray, Rob Shackelford, Sara Tonks and Jonathan Belles September 27, 2025 at 5:45 AM
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Tropical storm warnings are in effect in the Bahamas and South Carolina's Gov. Henry McMaster has declared a state of emergency due to what will become Tropical Storm Imelda. Imelda will pose a danger of heavy rain, high winds and coastal flooding to the Southeast U.S.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto underwent rapid intensification on Friday, going from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in less than a day. The storm's maximum sustained winds jumped from 65 mph to 145 in only 24 hours, making it the third storm to do so this year in the Atlantic Basin, following Erin and Gabrielle.
There is still uncertainty as to the details of how this will all shake out into next week, so please check back with us at weather.com for important updates in the days ahead as the forecast gradually becomes clearer. All interests in the Bahamas, the U.S. East Coast from Florida to North Carolina and Bermuda should closely monitor the progress of this forecast and have their hurricane plans ready to go.
(MORE: Our Map Tracker Page)
Future 'Imelda' A Bahamas, U.S. Threat
Happening Now
An organizing disturbance – named Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine by the National Hurricane Center Friday evening – is currently near Cuba and the southern Bahamas and will continue wringing out showers with locally heavy rain and gusty winds in those areas today.
(EXPLAINED: What Is A Potential Tropical Cyclone?)
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Bahamas, including Nassau and Freeport. Tropical storm conditions will expand northward across the Bahamas through the weekend.
The system is expected to become Tropical Storm Imelda this weekend and could become a hurricane by Monday or Tuesday.
Where Imelda Could Go
There are still two general scenarios for Imelda's track:
1. Imelda could stall off the Southeast coast for a day or two beginning Tuesday before turning east away from the coast, possibly toward Bermuda.
2. Imelda could continue moving north-northwest and landfall in the Carolinas as either a tropical storm or hurricane.
Some of the forecast model possibilities are illustrated by the map below.
(MORE: How To Read Spaghetti Models During Hurricane Season)
Spaghetti Models
How Strong Could Imelda Get?
Deep, warm ocean water, including the warm Gulf Stream current, as well as winds spreading apart aloft will fuel some modest strengthening the next few days.
Eventually, shearing winds, some dry air and the slow-moving storm churning up cooler water could limit any further intensification of Imelda.
For these reasons, this system is expected to be either a tropical storm or low-end hurricane near the Southeast.
Forecast Wind ShearEarly Look At Possible Impacts
Imelda will likely have at least some significant impacts along parts of the Southeast coast even if it never makes a landfall.
What could become the biggest threat from this storm is rainfall flooding, especially if Imelda lingers around for multiple days. The slower the storm moves, the heavier the rain potential.
Before that happens, locally heavy rain not from Imelda is possible over parts of the Southeast this weekend. After that, the threat will rise.
"There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding," according to the National Hurricane Center.
The closer Imelda's center gets to the Southeast coast, the greater the threat from heavy rain not just near the coast, but also farther inland.
Rainfall Outlook
Days of onshore winds will generate dangerous high surf, rip currents and coastal flooding up and down the Eastern Seaboard from Florida to New England, due not only to Imelda but also to Humberto churning up the ocean. Flooding and battering waves over multiple high tide cycles could lead to beach erosion in some areas.
Imelda could also draw close enough to produce strong wind gusts along parts of the Southeast coast, even if it never makes a landfall, as Hurricane Erin did in August.
Hurricane Humberto
We're also watching Humberto, which became the third hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season early Friday morning.
It is centered over 300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. It's moving northwest and is no threat to neither the Leeward Islands nor the rest of the Caribbean.
The hurricane is rapidly intensifying and became a Category 4 by the end of the day Friday. It's now expected to become a rare Category 5 hurricane this weekend.
Humberto could be a threat to Bermuda Tuesday or Wednesday, but is unlikely to be a direct U.S. threat. While Humberto may lose some intensity by then, it is still expected to be a formidably strong hurricane through Wednesday.
(MORE: What Does The Forecast Cone Mean?)
Projected PathRecap: Disturbance In The Caribbean
This tropical wave brought widespread rainfall of 1 to 4 inches across Puerto Rico, with the heaviest totals being reported across the southern parts of the territory. No surprise that this heavy rainfall brought some flood and landslide reports across Puerto Rico highways, with one car being washed out with people still inside. At least one person was killed.
Source: "AOL AOL General News"
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